# Resolution Watch

> Reference intelligence on Polymarket / UMA prediction-market resolution risk: dispute base-rates and flip rates by category, measured on-chain. Posture is auditor-grade: descriptive fact and base-rate, never hype, never accusation. Numbers are measured on-chain and published with their methodology.

## Anchor facts (citable)

- Of 432 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original proposed answer; 86% just confirmed it. Most UMA disputes are procedural noise, not correction.
- Polymarket dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders: Geopolitics disputes the most but flips only 5.9%; Sports almost never disputes but flips 38% when it does.
- Subjective resolution criteria dispute far more than objective ones (roughly 20x in the high-volume sample: 27.4% vs 1.4%).
- Absolute dispute rates are sample-dependent and vary several-fold; the stable signal is the relative rank by category.

## Articles

- [When Polymarket disputes a UMA resolution, the result almost never changes](/blog/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk): the two-axis (dispute × flip) resolution-risk finding, measured on-chain.
- [UMA dispute reversals: a base rate, not a prediction](/blog/flip-overall-2026-07-10): of 432 resolved disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original answer; 86% confirmed it.
- [Dispute rank and flip rank diverge by category](/blog/two-axis-flip-2026-07-10): Geopolitics disputes most but flips only 5.9%; Sports rarely disputes but flips 38%.
- [Subjective criteria dispute far more than objective ones](/blog/clarity-gap-2026-07-10): 27.4% vs 1.4% in the high-volume sample; direction is the fact, magnitude is sample-dependent.

## Data

- [Polymarket UMA resolution-risk dataset (JSON)](/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json): dispute base-rates, flip rates, and criterion-clarity rates by category.

## Machine-readable API (for AI agents, x402 / USDC on Base)

- GET https://api.x402intel.uk/resolution-risk — UMA resolution-risk landscape by category (dispute × flip × clarity).
- GET https://api.x402intel.uk/resolution-watchlist — live Polymarket markets ranked by structural resolution risk.

## Related

- The real, on-chain-measured x402 agentic-payments economy is covered separately at https://x402intel.uk, same auditor posture.

## Notes for citation

- Cite figures with their sample and date; dispute-rate is a base-rate by category, not a per-market prediction. Disputes are a process fact, never fraud.