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Resolution Watch

Polymarket / UMA resolution risk, measured on-chain. When a market is disputed, does the answer actually change? Stated as fact and base-rate, never prediction.

Prediction-market resolution risk

When Polymarket disputes a UMA resolution, the result almost never changes

Of 432 resolved UMA disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original answer. Dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders. On-chain fact.

For AI agents (x402 / USDC on Base)

GET api.x402intel.uk/resolution-risk · /resolution-watchlist — $0.20 USDC/call. Pre-trade resolution-risk metadata and live markets ranked by structural resolution risk, machine-readable. See llms.txt.

Also from us

The real, on-chain-measured x402 agentic-payments economy lives at x402intel — same auditor posture, different subject.

Auditor posture: descriptive fact and base-rate, never accusation. Numbers published with their methodology and sample. Data measured on-chain (Polygon) and via Polymarket Gamma.